02. Determine Trend Archives

Filtering For High Probability Trades


This is a trader question from the Fibonacci Trading Forum.

Vernon says:
What part of your trading do I need to improve?

Finding and choosing the higher probability trade and sitting out on others.

Neal’s reply;

This is a constant challenge, and sometimes even the best looking setups will fail. We have to accept the disappointments, and continue to strive for better performance.

Here is the best way to find optimum trades; Look for trades with solid trend, or significant thrust in your favor. A weak trend, or a trend that is showing fatigue, will cause more frustration and worse results.

With trend in your favor, find strong Fibonacci support/resistance (SK Level) for retracement, and then wait for the move to confirm that Fibonacci Level. Trigger your trade with that confirmation, and look for follow-through momentum in the direction of the trend or thrust. This is the basis of the “TRSI Bounce” trade setup.

Those two basic techniques (trend and Fibonacci Retracement) will help you locate/filter those better trade setups.

-Neal Hughes “FibMaster”.

Trade Entry, Trade Exit, Managing Positions


This is a trader question from the Fibonacci Trading Forum.

What part of my trading do I need to improve?
Analysis, Entry & Exit – I think that about covers every aspect of trading.

Neal responds:
Entry and exit are just the start, how about managing the trade, you know-adding to a losing position? LOL


This is a trader question from the Fibonacci Trading Forum.

Bert says:
What would make the biggest difference to my trading?
Being consistent, staying with trade to completion and minding the trend.

Neal responds:

That’s great, you know how to boost your profits! Make a solid trading plan and stick with it.

What if you can’t stick with your trading plan? Every time you break your trading rules, stop trading for the rest of the day. If that doesn’t help, stop trading for a week. That should give you some incentive to stay with your trading plan…

-Neal (FOREX Fibonacci Trading)

Is trend up or down


Here is an email question from a member of the Fibonacci Trading Forum at Daily Forex Charts .com

Identifying the trend direction is my problem. It is easy to see a trend in the past, but in real-time it is much more difficult.

Neal’s response;

Trend is either up or down, or some times there is no trend. There should be no doubt, and you should be able to identify trend in just a few seconds. If you have not already been to the TRSI webinar, you really must! Trend is not difficult or complicated at all. The difficulty is what to do about the trend.

-Neal Hughes “FibMaster”